Photo Credit: ABC
Every year, viewers must wait to learn about the fate of their favorite bubble shows. 2018 is no different, but with the golden age of television still booming there are plenty of great series fighting for renewals. As more networks begin to account for consistent downward trend for live ratings compared to streaming, it will be interesting to see which shows come out on top.
ABC
Photo Credit: ABC
For the People
It’s actually a little disheartening to see the first Shonda Rhimes show that doesn’t feel like a soap opera already on the chopping block. Populated by a group of diverse and talented actors, the show has been an impressive addition to ABC’s late night block. Unfortunately, lack of marketing seems to have been the cause of the series’ downfall. The ratings did pick up this week due to Roseanne viewers but it’s unlikely they’ll stick around.
This season follows a group of newly minted prosecutors and public defenders who go head to head in New York City. There are no major romantic drama or over-the-top cases, For the People takes a serious look at our legal system. Sadly, it takes its place among other bubble shows that probably won’t move past its first season.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: ABC
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
The Marvel series has always been in a tricky spot, with rumors of Disney forcing the network to keep it around. Despite low but consistent ratings, the show has thrived creatively in spite of budget cuts. While the MCU is technically connected, Agents of SHIELD is the only show to truly work alongside the movies. It makes sense that Marvel would want to keep it around as an entry point for fans to jump into.
It helps that the shows have an incredibly likable cast who happily go to fan conventions to promote the series. With Clark Gregg expected to make his film return on Captain Marvel, ABC should expect a boost in ratings next year. Channing Dungey recently spoke about how impressed they were with the writing on S.H.I.E.L.D. this season and that they hope to see it again next year. Considering Friday has become a notoriously difficult night for network television, it seems likely Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. will get to live another day on ABC for at least a final season.
Verdict: Probably Renewed (for a final season)
Photo Credit: ABC
Station 19
The Grey’s Anatomy spin-off shockingly grew in numbers this week after a lackluster premiere. Before the show debuted, there were a lot of questions whether the medical drama needed to introduce a fire department. It felt like ABC’s answer to the successful NBC Chicago series more than an actual attempt towards a spin-off. The reviews for Station 19 were mixed, but of the two new Shonda shows this does seem more likely to survive to next year.
Following a group of courageous firefighters at the Station 19 within the Seattle Fire Department, the show hits all the right dramatic notes. The rise in viewership between the two episodes hints that it’s being watched regularly by delayed viewings. If the series hits Netflix after this season, it’s probably safe to say there will be even more viewers checking it out. Even though For the People, is the better of the two new Shonda shows, Station 19 will get the renewal.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: ABC
Designated Survivor
Even Jack Bauer might not be able to save Designated Survivor from cancellation. The Kiefer Sutherland series has a few things helping it’s renewal chances: namely the fact that ABC owns the series. They take in the total profits which makes it much more appealing to renew. Sutherland is also a big star for ABC, and they’ll want to hold onto him for as long as possible.
However, the biggest draw for a third season is the delayed viewing numbers. Like most bubble shows, Designated Survivor thrives in DVR ratings where it has a massive increase every week. The series has also managed to remain pretty steady over the past three episodes in the Nielsen ratings.
What the show hasn’t managed is to craft a compelling storyline for most of season two. The only way ABC would renew it is if the showrunners were able to pitch a third season that could maintain viewers. With the nation currently suffering from political fatigue, things don’t look great for Designated Survivor.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: ABC
Deception
ABC has been desperate to find a replacement for long-time procedural, Castle but Deception doesn’t look like the answer. Where the former is about a crime novelist who assists the NYPD with the hopes of finding inspiration for his next book, the latter is about a magician. Yes, renowned illusionist, Cameron Black has joined the FBI in Deception, making the premise about as ridiculous as it sounds.
Critics and audience members seem to agree on the mixed reviews the show has gotten throughout the three episodes to have aired. It’s been steadily dropping from week to week, with no signs of stopping anytime soon. Sorry Deception, but there’s no magic to save this series from being one and done.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: CBS
Criminal Minds
Every year the renewal decision for Criminal Minds comes down to the wire. It’s not owned by CBS, so the network has to renegotiate deals with the hopes of keeping costs down. Luckily, in its fourteenth season, it’s pulling in a lot of money courtesy of syndication deals. A big decision for renewal will come down to how much CBS is looking to spend on a series with a large ensemble. They have been notoriously stingy in the past by getting rid of two of their lead female cast members for budget cuts that were met with anger by fans.
However, the show also lost three leads going into this season by outside sources. One for misconduct on set, and two others to new series. With ratings falling each season, Criminal Minds gets lumped in with the other bubble shows struggling to find new viewers. Despite hitting series lows, the serial killer procedural will probably come back while CBS tries to figure out what to replace it with.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: CBS
Superior Donuts
CBS liked Superior Donuts enough to renew the show last year but the second time might not be the charm. It underperformed compared to other freshmen comedies that got the ax but the network was hoping it would catch on. It’s owned by CBS, which is probably a big reason it snagged a renewal in the first place.
Has Superior Donuts ever been advertised for? A big reason it seemed to fail is the lack of recognition the show gets. Without word of mouth or a Netflix boost, this comedy seemed doomed to fail this year. It is pulling higher ratings than Living Biblically and 9JKL, that gives it a slight chance next year. CBS does need a comedy block and the series could be a solid midseason slot filler. However, it’s more likely the network is just going to start fresh.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: CBS
Scorpion
Scorpion fans will be lucky if the series gets renewed for a final season. It’s one of CBS’ lowest-rated scripted shows and it doesn’t fare well in the Nielsen ratings. If it had a passionate online community or high ratings, there would be a stronger chance for a last minute Hail Mary. However out of all the bubble shows, this one seems like the least popular procedural.
Owned by CBS, the show about a group of geniuses will have just missed the mark for syndication. At the end of season four, Scorpion will have ninety-three episodes out of the one hundred typically required for syndication. If they can return for a shortened final season with a tighter budget than CBS probably will go for it.
Verdict: Probably Renewed (for a final season)
Photo Credit: CBS
Kevin Can Wait
Did Kevin James really think he could sneak a King of Queens remake onto television without viewers noticing? The second season has been suffering from the scandal of Erinn Hayes’ firing once Leah Remini was added to the cast. It’s nice to see viewers reacting to the “creative changes” in a negative way compared to supporting an unjust dismissal. CBS never did explain why they couldn’t keep both actresses on board and the ratings have suffered for it.
As obnoxious as the move was, Kevin Can Wait is still pulling in a decent amount of viewers compared to other bubble shows on the network. If it comes down to CBS taking only one of their lower rated comedies than Kevin James will probably get to continue his sitcom next fall.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: CBS
Madam Secretary
Madam Secretary always puts CBS in a weird position when it comes to renewals. It is the worst show on the network when it comes to performance in the Nielsen ratings. Sometimes it sinks so long during the week that The CW beats it, which is embarrassing for any of the big networks. However, while it doesn’t seem to appeal to the 18-49 age range, Madam Secretary has managed to pull in a lot of viewers.
Every year the political drama manages to scrape by with a renewal because of this fact alone. Yet, television has entered the age of streaming where snagging younger viewers is becoming more important. Madam Secretary is unique compared to other bubble shows which probably means it will grab another renewal as long as it keeps the actual ratings up.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: FOX
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Two weeks ago, it would have been a no-brainer that the FOX comedy would be canceled. The show was pulling sad ratings and even the showrunners seemed positive this would be it. However, then Brooklyn Nine-Nine got moved back to Sunday nights and everything changed. It secured a 0.9 in the Nielsen ratings in its two Sunday broadcasts, which would have placed it in the middle of the packs for FOX shows.
Even though the comedy is incredibly expensive for FOX, the network pretty openly hoped to keep it on its fall slate. Critically beloved and from hitmaker Mike Schur, Brooklyn Nine-Nine was already being rumored to be saved by a streaming service if it was canceled. Following a group of cops in the NYPD, the series is reminiscent of Schur’s other comedy Parks & Recreation. If the season can continue averaging a 0.9, then a renewal seems all but confirmed for next year.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: FOX
Gotham
FOX is in a precarious position next year because they no longer have Thursday night time slots available in the fall. That effects all of the lower rated dramas which are fighting for a spot on the schedule: namely Gotham. Before the DC Comics series returned from the break, it was one of the bubble shows tipping towards a renewal. However, a hard drop off in ratings diminished those chance greatly.
Monetarily, keeping Gotham around would make a lot of sense. The series scored a pretty nice syndication package, and it the international streaming rights was sold. Gary Newman, the FOX Chairman, also spoke earlier this month about his desire to keep the comic book series on the network. At the very least, it seems like Gotham will get a final season just to see Bruce Wayne finally becoming Batman compared to the “Batman-lite” version he is now.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: FOX
LA to Vegas
LA to Vegas started off with decent ratings but has fallen pretty far in the recent weeks. It had remained relatively steady at 0.7 in the Nielsen scale, but this past week officially dropped by 0.1. Following a crew with Jackpot Airlines, the series was meant to be FOX’s new raunchy sitcom. However, despite the constant trips from LA to Vegas with plenty of funny characters the show continues to fall in the ratings.
Poor Dylan McDermott just hasn’t had the best of luck with television series in the past few years. Unfortunately, it seems like this is going to be another cancellation for him even with the small but loyal fan base. As sad as it is to see the show go, McDermott has been hilarious and hopefully, he continues to do more comedic work.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: FOX
The Resident
This medical drama received pretty negative reviews but a football lead-in helped boost the numbers to an impressive premiere. While the ratings have been on a decline since then, The Resident will leave to see another day. Every network needs at least one medical procedural, and FOX is hoping it will bounce back with better numbers next year. With the show most likely to stream on Hulu during the break, there’s a big chance it will build a bigger fan base.
The Resident is still drawing in about four million viewers per episode which is high compared to the other bubble shows. Yes, the Nielsen ratings are down to about 0.9, but that’s pretty good for FOX. Every network is down, and the show will probably keep anything averaging a 0.9 or higher on the schedule for next year.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: FOX
Ghosted
What went wrong with Ghosted? If the series is canceled it’s most likely due to behind the scenes meddling. Shockingly, it pulled pretty solid numbers throughout its first half of the season before going on hiatus. Then, the break was extended while the series was re-tooled for its second half. Star, Amber Stevens West, also is expected to star in a new pilot which doesn’t give fans much hope the series is even expected to return.
Unless FOX plans on promoting the second half of the season to draw back returning viewers, Ghosted seems like a long shot for renewal. The network has said they needed to take a different direction for the series if it plans to have any sort of longevity. At this rate though, the Craig Robinson/Adam Scott horror comedy is probably not going to continue into next fall.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: NBC
The Blacklist
Each year The Blacklist gets lumped in with the other bubble shows only to get renewed. Yes, the Nielsen ratings have dropped quite a bit since the series premiere, but it still pulls in a lot of actual viewers. Averaging a 0.97 on the Nielsen scale and over five million viewers, that alone should make the series safe for a renewal.
The other big factor is how much the show makes for NBC internationally. Money and high ratings? That should be enough to secure a renewal for The Blacklist.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: NBC
Blindspot
Like The Blacklist, Blindspot has lower Nielsen ratings but pretty solid viewership. It’s also a massive hit overseas that allows NBC to bring in a lot of money. If it gets renewed, it will bring even more revenue due to syndication.
However, it’s tough for NBC to renew a show if it’s not appealing to younger viewers. There’s not a big future for a series that can’t cultivate younger audiences who can remain invested over a long period of time. The show is owned by a different studio, therefore it makes it pricey to produce on top of a large ensemble. Ultimately, it will come down to how large of a syndication package the show can secure next year. Considering the series can always have a midseason or summer debut, Blindspot will probably return for at least a final season.
Verdict: Probably Renewed (for a final season)
Photo Credit: NBC
AP Bio
Unfortunately for AP Bio Glenn Howerton and Patton Oswalt are not enough to keep viewers from jumping ship. One of the steadier bubble shows, it looked like the underrated comedy might squeak by with a renewal. This week it dropped by 0.2 in the Nielsen ratings, a pretty dramatic drop-off for a show fighting for a season two. This looks like it’s going to be the nail in the coffin for the school comedy.
It’s pulling an average rating a bit higher than the recently canceled Great News. NBC will probably hold off on making a decision on AP Bio until Trial and Error debuts later this fall. Whoever gets the highest will most likely come away with the renewal. However, the latter tapped Kristen Chenoweth as their new series lead so things are looking pretty grim for AP Bio.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: NBC
Timeless
Timeless is the little show that just refuses to quit. After getting canceled and then renewed a few days later, the time-traveling show literally made history. Moved to a 10 PM time slot on Sundays, NBC definitely expected the series would return down. Despite averaging around 0.7 score in the Nielsen ratings, the show has been relatively stable. Will fans be able to pull off another last-minute miracle?
For starters, the series has an incredibly loyal fan base that tends to watch the show in delayed viewings. The late-night time slot has been notoriously difficult to draw viewers in and being steady is better than falling. Not to mention, the series has enjoyed a creative burst of energy with a fantastic season two. It is one of the few bubble shows that fans will passionately fight to save this year. Sadly, it looks like its renewal chances will come down to how well Shades of Blue performs at the same time.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: NBC
Rise
NBC was hoping to score a younger audience with their high school drama Rise but it doesn’t seem like fans are interested. Developed by Jason Katims, the whole series feels like a retread of Friday Night Lights down to the tragic backstories and shaky camera work. Watching the series is just a sad reminder about good FNL was compared to this musical drama.
It opened pretty well with a 1.23 in the Nielsen ratings and maintained a 1.1 in week two. Unfortunately, in episode 3 it dropped down to a 0.8 which doesn’t bode well for renewal chances. Rise is apparently beloved by NBC which should give fans hope as long as it doesn’t sink any lower than it’s already at.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: The CW
Life Sentence
Lucy Hale might be a star in the making but Life Sentence isn’t going to be the show to be it. The CW show debuted to poor ratings and hasn’t been able to climb out of the hole since. It’s probably going to be one and done for yet another new show for the network. A few years ago The CW was on an upswing with quite a few risky but critically adored new shows.
Life Sentence feels like another single season show called No Tomorrow. Maybe if the series pulls in a lot of Netflix viewers it could convince the network to do a season two. Yet The CW has a lot of new pilots in the works so the future looks pretty dire for Life Sentence.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: The CW
iZombie
Unlike the other CW shows, iZombie has been around for a while. Like all of the other shows on the network, it has been hitting series lows throughout these past few episodes. This doesn’t mean much for The CW since the network prefers to renew shows that do well critically and have a passionate audience.
Chances are this zombie show isn’t quite dead yet and will get at least one more season. The CW always likes to give its long-running shows the chance for a decent conclusion. Not to mention, they added Sunday nights to their broadcast which paves the way for some of the lower rated but beloved shows to continue living.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Photo Credit: Starz
Ash vs. Evil Dead (Starz)
Things aren’t looking great for the Starz horror series, Ash vs. Evil Dead. It dropped almost fifty percent in the average ratings this season compared to last year. While the premium networks don’t normally base their renewals entirely on ratings, this is a disconcerting drop. Starz, in particular, needs to find a way to get more members to sign up compared to Showtime and HBO. If people are fleeing from this series, then it makes the renewal chances much lower.
Despite averaging a 0.08 Nielsen rating and falling eight place out of ten in the network ratings, the beloved series has a few things helping it out. For starters, the episodes are only thirty minutes which keeps production costs down. The shorter seasons also keep cast commitments down and make it easier to schedule. Ultimately, it will come down to how much Starz has faith in the series for season four. Can it have a creative resurgence to warrant another year? The network will also have to take into account how the disagreement with Optimum affected the ratings.
Verdict: Probably Cancelled
Photo Credit: HBO
Barry (HBO)
Bill Hader’s dark comedy was off to an average start for HBO comedies in the ratings but has already been critically adored. A lot of reviewers went so far as claiming Barry might be the best new show of 2018. Like Starz, HBO doesn’t care so much about ratings as long as it draws in critical acclaim. This is the network that renewed The Leftovers despite the minuscule audience it had in the second season.
Based on the recent marketing push, it seems like the network is invested in keeping Barry around. Of all of the bubble shows, this is the one that looks like it’s guaranteed to get a renewal.
Verdict: Probably Renewed
Next: Arrow says goodbye to an original cast member
It’s hard to grade bubble shows in 2018 with so many networks relying on streaming. Ratings are no longer the main factor in deciding the fates of these series with so many new aspects coming into play. As May gets closer, networks will have to make the hard decisions about which bubble shows will be sticking around come fall.