Analyzing Game of Thrones’ chances at the Emmy’s

Will the controversy surrounding Game of Thrones’ final season prevent it from taking home many Emmy awards? What do the odds say?

The Emmy’s air Sunday, September 22nd on Fox starting at 8:00 PM EDT. A lot of attention is being given to Game of Thrones, as it seeks to round up awards for the last time (until the spin-offs get nominated).

(Credit to GoldDerby for Emmy’s odds) 

The hit HBO show has won 47 out of 161 Emmy nominations in the Drama category since 2011, including victories for Outstanding Drama Series, Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series, Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series and Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. The show holds the Emmy’s record for most wins by a scripted television series, ahead of Frasier’s 37.

This year, Game of Thrones is nominated for a record 32 Emmy’s. It’s sure to win at least a few, but it’s worth considering whether the mixed reception to the final season will have a negative impact on the number of victories. One can spend days arguing about what shows deserve to win each award, but in terms of actually making predictions, it seems best to look at betting odds for each category.

There are a lot of different odds available, but GoldDerby seems to be as good as any others; it incorporates a variety of factors to produce odds for a variety of Emmy’s categories. Let’s see how Game of Thrones is expected to fair.

Outstanding Drama Series

1. Game of Thrones  – 5-1

2. Killing Eve – 6-1

3. Better Call Saul  – 13/2

4. This Is Us –  7/1

5. Ozark – 15/2

Game of Thrones is a slight favorite over Killing Eve per the above odds. Perhaps voters will give the final season a sort of “farewell victory.”

Outstanding Drama Actress

1. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve – 7-2

2. Laura Linney – Ozark – 5-1

3. Jodie Corner – Killing Eve – 5-1

4. Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones – 13-2

5. Robin Wright – House of Cards – 30-1

Clarke isn’t as much of a long shot as her 4th-best odds might make her seem, but a victory still seems unlikely.

Outstanding Drama Actor

1. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul – 4-1

2. Jason Bateman – Ozark – 9-2

3. Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us – 6-1

4. Billy Porter – Pose – 7-1

5. Kit Harrington – Game Of Thrones – 10-1

Again, a Harrington victory isn’t completely out of the question, but it also seems unlikely.

Outstanding Drama Supporting Actress

1. Julia Gardner – Ozark – 4-1

2. Lena Headey – Game of Thrones – 9-2

3. Maisie Williams – Game of Thrones – 9-2

4. Sophie Turner – Game of Thrones – 8-1

5. Fiona Shaw – Killing Eve – 18-1

Gardner appears to be the favorite, but with three Thrones nominations in this category, there seems to be a greater than 50% chance one of them win.

Outstanding Drama Supporting Actor

1. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones – 17-5

2. Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul – 9-2

3. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau – Game of Thrones – 5-1

4. Michael Kelly – House of Cards – 18-1

5. Giancarlo Esposito – Better Call Saul – 100-1

With a favorite in Dinklage and Coster-Waldau in the mix as well, there’s a strong probability Thrones takes a victory here.

Conclusion

With 32 total nominations, Game of Thrones is bound to win its fair share of Emmy’s, but in terms of the high profile awards discussed above, a clean sweep appears unlikely. This seems to be more due to the quality of the other shows, however, rather than any real blowback against Thrones’  final season.