Euphoria season 3 has been divisive so far, but the most recent episode on Sunday night, “The Ballad of Paladin,” was undeniably eventful. Heavily marketed as the Nate (Jacob Elordi) and Cassie (Sydney Sweeney) wedding episode, we got to see their big day play out—and all of the mishaps that unexpectedly happened.
The episode also shed some light on what Jules (Hunter Schafer) is up to, as well as Rue’s (Zendaya) career growth. Now, instead of just dealing drugs at the strip club, she’s dealing guns! Rue never knows how to keep out of trouble, does she? Well, speaking of trouble, she wasn’t the only one getting herself into dangerous situations in episode 3. Nate’s storyline took a front seat as we learned that he still didn’t pay his debt back to Naz (Jack Topalian)—and he’s not going to get away with it.
According to Style Caster, a rumor circulated social media last year sharing that a “reliable source” said there would be a “significant death” this season, and since then, fans have been speculating who it could be. Based on the promotional teasers showing Nate getting beat up, many assumed it would be him. And though he made it out of episode 3 alive, Polymarket odds are still in favor of his death. But let’s back up a bit and recap what happened at the wedding (and after).
Why did Nate get beat up in Euphoria season 3?
It’s been building up for some time. As we learned earlier in the season, though Nate is running his dad’s business, he’s in a lot of debt. He owes multiple people—including one of his best friends—money, but most importantly, he owes money to a sketchy businessman named Naz. Nate promised he would pay Naz back, but by the wedding, he still hadn’t. And Naz took that as an opportunity to make a scene.
During Nate and Cassie’s wedding reception, Naz showed up—uninvited, of course—to congratulate the happy couple, and threaten them in the process. Cassie had no idea that Nate owed anyone money, and was shocked at the confrontation. For Naz’s part, he was angry that Nate had spent so much money on his lavish wedding but was refusing to pay him back. It was a bad look, truly.
And though Nate sent Naz off assuring him that he’d pay him back, the intimidation didn’t stop there. When Nate and Cassie arrived home after the wedding, they were met by Naz and another man who were already in their house. The man started beating up Nate, very badly, while Cassie sat on the floor and sobbed. The night ended with Nate getting his toe cut off, as a warning that he’d better pay up. Clearly, these guys are dangerous, and Nate has gotten himself into a very bad situation.
But could this situation lead to death?
Nate’s odds of dying
Earlier in the season, the odds of Nate dying on the prediction market site Polymarket were high, with percentages up to 72%. Now that we know that he survived the wedding episode, however, the odds have decreased, but they’re still in favor of his demise. As of this writing, Polymarket has the odds of Nate dying at 48%—but he’s not the only one.
Also at 48% is Faye (Chloe Cherry), who could definitely get caught in the crosshairs of a dangerous situation at Laurie’s (Martha Kelly). Interestingly enough, in third place is Elliot (Dominic Fike), who despite not even being in season 3 yet, is at a 40% chance of dying. Rue is currently at 33%, and I know fans would be so angry if she ends up getting killed off.
Hilarious and random is the fact that Ethan (Austin Abrams) is also on the list with a 22% chance of dying, though the character is not expected to appear in season 3 at all.
Prior to the season beginning, it had been rumored that Nate would die, though there were no legitimate sources to back this up.
But would his death be too predictable?
We know that the odds are against Nate’s survival right now, but would his dying be too obvious? At this point, we know he’s in a lot of trouble—probably more than Rue, surprisingly. But it would be very predictable for Nate to die in Euphoria season 3. Because of that, I don’t know if I believe that he will. Yes, it’s likely given his storyline right now, but that might change.
Say what you want about Euphoria, but it’s very rarely predictable, meaning Nate dying would be uncharacteristic for the show. That said, this season is different from previous seasons, and the quality has gone down. So, despite my speculating, anything is possible.
Check out the preview for next week’s episode of Euphoria to make some predictions of your own:
New episodes of Euphoria season 3 premiere every Sunday night on HBO and HBO Max. Check back with us at Show Snob for our weekly recaps.
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