Emmys predictions: Each Best Drama nominee’s odds of winning
By Mads Lennon
Emmys 2020: Which Best Drama nominee will win?
It’s that time of year where we start prepping our ballots and predictions for the most prestigious television awards around. It seems a little strange to celebrate Emmys 2020 amid the pandemic, but the award show is moving full-steam ahead — despite its recently announced swap to a virtual show rather than live.
TVLine recently broke the news that the awards ceremony would be virtual, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the third time. I had a feeling it was only a matter of time before that happened.
We decided it might be fun to comb through the nominations to see which one might be most likely to win, even if that show is not necessarily the show we would choose, there are some tricks to knowing who the academy may throw their weight behind.
Emmys 2020: Better Call Saul
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- Odds of Winning: Very Low
Sadly, Better Call Saul remains one of the best television shows airing on cable yet also one of the most underrated ones.
That said, the latest season has garnered more attention than seasons past, but it is still hard to imagine that it will finally secure as big of a win as the Best Drama award.
Emmys 2020: The Crown
- Odds of Winning: Low
The Crown is one of Netflix’s most popular series and has garnered its fair share of Emmys over the years. Could it win for Best Drama this year? Maybe if the competition wasn’t so tough, but the biggest draw to The Crown seems to be in production design and acting.
Emmys 2020: Ozark
- Odds of Winning: Long-shot
As good as Ozark is, and it is extremely good — many have even favorably compared it to another award show darling, Breaking Bad.
Unfortunately, Ozark has not really come close to winning this particular award over the year, although it did get some love for its actors in Julia Garner and Jason Bateman, which were both well-deserved.
Emmys 2020: Succession
- Odds of Winning: Very High
Succession is one of the breakout hits of the year and has easily ushered itself to a frontrunner category considering how many acting and writing nominations it nabbed alongside the prestigious Best Drama award.
It was also nominated for multiple awards in 2019, too, but this year the series has truly secured itself in a post-Game of Thrones world as one of HBO’s top dramas.
Emmys 2020: The Handmaid’s Tale
- Odds of Winning: Low
Despite The Handmaid’s Tale winning this very category in the past, we have a hard time believing it will get a repeat win since even its major league star, Elisabeth Moss, somehow managed to get shut out of the Lead Actress category.
Emmys 2020: Stranger Things
- Odds of Winning: Very Low
Stranger Things almost always gets some honorary Emmy Award nominations, but never seems to win. It fares a little better with the Creative Awards for things like Sound Editing, but beyond that, it’s not considered an Emmys darling.
The academy still has a hard time accepting genre shows into the fold and actually following through with awarding them the big prizes.
Emmys 2020: The Mandalorian
- Odds of Winning: Possible
Most of us were shocked when we saw The Mandalorian appear on the nominees list, as again, the academy isn’t always fond of genre shows. Not only that, but while The Mandalorian was very popular on Disney Plus, it was not necessarily always critically acclaimed. Still, it is a blockbuster hit similar to the likes of Game of Thrones, which might explain its inclusion.
Normally I would say the odds of it winning were low, but occasionally the Emmys in particularly like to throw an award to the underdog or the darkhorse and surprise people, so it could happen.
Emmys 2020: Killing Eve
- Odds of Winning: Low
Killing Eve is another example of a great show where the leads often outshine the material. Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer are very popular with the voters, but the third season of Killing Eve felt a little short of what fans are used to. I can’t see it nabbing the top prize.
Final Consensus: Ultimately, we’re pretty confident in suggesting that Succession will win, although there is a chance The Mandalorian could swoop in and steal their award.
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Which of the Best Drama nominees do you most want to win? Which one do you think will actually win at the Emmys 2020? let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
The virtual Emmys 2020 ceremony will debut on September 20 on ABC.